Century of technology

Future-Proofing Business: A look at the Next Decade of Technology

Samuel Warren

IS330- Information Systems

Prof. Juan Nobels

December 3, 2010
Introduction

            Technology is changing. From dawn of the 20th century, until now, technology has been surging onward like the relentless march of time. However, while time remains constant in its pace, technology is constantly growing at an exponential rate. Someone gets an idea, makes it work for them, and advancement is born. Advancement gives way to new learning and new learning gives way to more advancement and the cycle continues. Many companies are now trying to harness advancement. One downside to advancing technology is the rate at which things change. Companies such as Google understand that change is inevitable. Google is a poster-child for changing technology. From its humble beginnings as a search engine to a goldmine of applications and tools that did not just come from development, but also a basic understanding of change. “The real secret to Google's mystique is that of a company that understands the possibilities of technological change, and where to look for the small companies with big ideas that will change established business models” (Kirby, 2009, p. 54).

            Google is the sailor on the winds of change, harnessing it, using it to propel their organization into greater and greater levels of achievement and popularity. However, there are times when the winds of change do not blow well enough to move a company into success. This is where timely thinking must be added to the bevy of technological breakthroughs and smart business practices can make up the differences. While the pace of change is incredible, there are some things that one can do to help “Future-proof” their company. In essence, that entails staying in the front of the changes. It requires a lot of work, money, and people who are dedicated being willing to drop everything they are used to at a moments notice. By looking at technological advancements between 1910 and 2010, we can see a good comparison of what has happened. In so doing, we will an analysis of the pace of technology’s break neck change will be made, as well as some predictions of what technology will be like in the year 2020. While technology in 2020 is discussed, how it affects work/life balance and professional development will be a crucial point. While most of this is based solely in the realm of speculation, much of what will be looked at can be traced to current trends and practices.

1910 v. 2010

The year is 1910. Woodrow Wilson was the President of the United States. The U.S. was alive and well. Many of the technological advancements we take for granted now were just coming out.

In transportation, those first years of the 20th century began the age of the airship, marked by a craze for dirigibles such as the Zeppelin and the Wright Brothers' historic flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903. Henry Ford introduced his landmark Model T in 1908, making automobiles available and affordable to the masses for the first time. (Whipps, 2010)

The automobile is one of the most revolutionary breakthroughs in world history. It enabled the average person to travel a journey that would normally take several days by horse and buggy, one day by automobile. From there, the technology skyrocketed. If one looks at the history of just the automobile, they would discover the technology of the automobile expanding as fast as any other new technology. With the creation of the car, the engine use to power it became more advanced, the brakes needed to be created. When the roads changed to asphalt and concrete, the solid wood wheels would not grip, so rubber tires were created. These changes, along with the desire to better understand the new technology, made it possible to have one advancement cause a change in the entire field. If you compare the 1910 automobile to any of the 2010 model cars and trucks, they seem almost like a work of science fiction rather than innovation and change. For example, the 2010 Toyota Rav 4 has a “Smart Key” entry system that enables the owner to enter the car without fumbling around for their keys. Then it enables them to start the car without needing a key in an ignition. These advancements would never have been made had Ford’s “Model T” not continued to evolve and change over time. Another amazing advancement is the blackboard. If you had said, “Go and put something on the blackboard” at a school in 1910, people would have understood you to mean the “take a piece of chalk, go and write something on the blackboard.” However, in 2010, that implies something totally different. “But I bet most students are familiar with Blackboard, the online course-management system used by schools and universities across the country” (Pahl, 2009, p. 99). The new blackboard differs from the old in many ways. While the original blackboard was used only for writing, drawing, and anything related to using chalk, this new blackboard does much more. The new blackboard is really tailored to each school. City University of Seattle uses the blackboard technologies to not only manage student activities across multiple classes, but also to share weekly presentations, and email information. Add to that the ability to post many different file types, and link to an online library from many different schools and you have a portal to the knowledge of the entire world at the fingertips of students.
            One great thing about technological advancements of this last century is that it opens up a lot more experiences in life. In 2010, one can chat live with people from around the country and the world using services like Skype. What used to be an impossible, or very difficult task becomes not only possible, but much easier with technology. A prime example is mathematics. Prior to the creation of modern computers, mathematics was limited to hand calculations. With computers and calculators, what was very difficult and time consuming becomes almost mediocre.
           Another example is found in the field of medicine. The practice of medicine was very general. There was a doctor for a town, and depending on how much that doctor knew, they may or may not be able to treat something. If a patient in Wichita, Kansas had certain symptoms and their doctor did not know how to treat it, he would try a variety of different cure’s trying to get rid of the symptoms. Religion, medicine, and town customs often mixed, even as late as 1910. But as technology progressed in the field of medicine, so too did the ability to specifically target and treat specific symptoms. If someone goes into a doctor’s office today, the doctor may compare the symptoms to a database on a computer and find out exactly what a person may or may not have and treat with the most common medicine. In the May 2009 publication of Centaurus, an article highlights the public perception of science and technology in 1910. “The extent to which the public was familiarised with medical terms and procedures is made evident from the frequent use of such terms, both literally and metaphorically, in opinion articles (Anon., 1909l) [sic]” (Mergoupi-Savaidou, E., Papanelopoulou, F., & Tzokas, S, p. 125). In 1910, most of the public’s education on medicine was begotten from newspapers and word of mouth. However, in 2010, one can go on the internet and learn not only what possible ailment they have, but also how to treat it or learn about a specialist in that field. Then with the click of a button, they can schedule an appointment and put a reminder in their calendar at the same time.

Pace of Technology

            The great thing about technology is also its chief problem: constant growth and change. The pace at which technology increases is at what mathematicians call “exponential.” To illustrate that, a graph has been created..

(Table 1)

	(Graph 1)

 

In Table 1 There are some sample values for X and X^2 (X squared). To understand what is shown, one must know that X-value, which is represented in the left hand column, is a sample number of days; while the Y-value, which is represented by the right hand column, is the sample number of advancements. For each day’s increase, there is a jump in the number of advancements. As time goes on, the rate at which technology advances also increases. It does so, not just in a steady way, but increases its speed and gains momentum. While this is not exactly how the pace of technology growth is all the time, it is a prudent example of the kinds of break-through differences that the rate of change on technology. In their 2009 book, Kennedy, Johnson, and Karunakaran share some important thoughts on technology:

Put people first.

§  Technology is only a supporting feature — its purpose is to serve people, both customers and employees.

§  Use technology to enable more effective work, and more effective human contact.

Provide and anticipate marketplace needs.

§  Take customer suggestions very seriously, and always work to anticipate the emerging needs of the market.

§  Dialogue with customers around their needs, and respond quickly.

These highlighted practices and thoughts help enable a company to not only future proof their business, but also harness the incredible rate of change. With such incredible rate of change, the landscape of technology can literally change in weeks. What kind of technology will we see in the next year? In the next 10 years?

Advancements in Technology in 2020

The car, the computer, the cellular telephone, the television; all advancements in technology made a huge impact on the world. The last 100 years have seen amazing advancements in every field of science and technology. One of the most amazing achievements in the last 100 years was the space race. Yet the next great race is not about leaving the planet. The next great race is to see what country can come up with technology that defies current standards and opens new areas of innovation and change. Much of that is being done now with the computer. Shrinking electronics physically, while expanding them virtually is one facet of the advancement race. Back in the 1990’s, storage on a computer was very limited. The typical hard-drive was only a few hundred megabytes. Fast-forward just 20 years, the typical hard-drive is upwards of 100 gigabytes (1056 megabytes x 100).

The virtual world network will offer us freedom – the freedom to do business, to socialize, to communicate. In short, to interact free of many of the constraints we still feel in 2005.But the science fiction fantasies of the twentieth century certainly predicted many things that never came to pass. Think about 2001 and the human colonization of the moon, for instance. It’s hard to predict what technology will actually deliver (Eslambolchi, 2006)

The problem with trying to predict the future is that it can only be based on current technology and human mental capacity. Even the very smartest people cannot completely predict what will happen. However, if one looks at the last 100 years, as has been discussed, they can expect to see more easy interaction between humans and technology. As technology gets more advanced, there is an increased need for easy, intuitive interaction. To determine what technology will be like in the future, some countries choose to do an exercise called “Technology Foresight.” During this exercise, scientists get together and decide what technologies could be around, what technologies are actually feasible for that country and how they could be implemented in government, in businesses, and in day to day activities. China has been using “Technology Foresight” with great affect.

In order to identify the demands on technology, the trend and the direction of   S&T development in 2020, methods such as the Delphi survey and scenario building were used in the Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China so as to provide a public platform for different interests and stakeholders to discuss the problems of the future. (Rongping, Zhongbao, Sida & Yan, 2009, p. 291)

To predict technological changes, one not only needs to be forward thinking, but also have an understanding that they cannot do it on their own. Getting as many people as physically possible involved in the discussion will enable a greater insight into many different mindsets and paradigms. While it can be very hard to organize, but with a little determination and a common vision one can do more to unite the different parties than sheer organization alone.
            When doing this kind of an exercise, one can make logical assumptions about what can happen. If nothing interferes with the current progression of technological advancement, there is a reasonable chance that the technology will develop in that way.

Work and Play in 2020

While we cannot predict to an absolute what technology will be, as mentioned above we can make assumptions. These assumptions not only affect the way we interact with all the different aspects of life. When thinking forward to some of the changes that could happen, for example smaller computers, one must realize that everyone dealing with new technology will need new training. While technology can be a great aid in learning, it can also pose a serious trial.

The rapid changes in technology pose both challenges and opportunities for the technical training organization. Not only is technical training constantly changing, but personal effectiveness courses are gaining technical aspects. For example, time management courses include training on the use of calendar programs, and management courses address the use of intranets for corporate communication. (Combs & Davis, 2010)

Learning and training become all the more important. Although an increase in intuitive interaction with the technology, there will be new technology coming out faster and faster. While one can assume that people will know how to use technology, understanding how it works and how to support the technology becomes the next great learning adventure.  One thing that is estimated to take up time is the growing involvement of Government.

 
           As the government of any country begins getting involved, they will provide regulations and standards to not only protect the consumers, but also keep the businesses in 2020 from taking advantage of unchecked growth. “As IT operations become inextricably linked with business operations, it seems likeiy that whatever big trends affect the business will have ramifications for IT… Government regulations will take up a growing portion of management’s time and effort. [Because of that] Even more IT work will be devoted to regulatory compliance and audits” (King, 2010, p. 17). The amount of interaction will increase with the advancements in technology, so it stands to reason that more and more managers and others will need to do more paperwork. If technology in 2010 is any indication of some of the kinds of problems 2020 will bring, then one can see a lack of common tools throughout each area.
            Right now, 2010, each company uses its own tools. Usually, the tools are specialized to how they work. Even within the same area of technology, there are multiple tools in use that do not really ever come into contact at all. For example, internet technology uses a huge variety of languages to code the websites. On a single website, one can find Javascript, Flash, HTML, PHP, and MySQL working together to give a single unified presentation. The problem with so many tools is that they do not always “Play well with each other.”
            While technology changes the way we work, how will it change the way we play? With the computer came computer games. While they started out very humbly, video game popularity has become one of the most popular things ever. With new technological advancements, video games go from hard to see figures to fully interactive environments. The Nintendo Wii gaming console pioneered motion controlled video gaming. Players use an infrared controller and way the controller at a sensor to interact with the game. One new technology is the Xbox 360 Kinect. 

Microsoft's new hands-free Kinect controller makes playing Xbox 360 video games feel like magic: Wave your arms, move your body, issue a command and voila! games happen. Appropriately, the new $150 device began disappearing from store shelves as soon as it went on sale Thursday, as strong first-day sales helped boost forecasts for Kinect's holiday sales. Plugged into an Xbox 360, the Kinect sensor wirelessly tracks players' full-body movements, voices and faces.  (Mike, 2010)

Motion controlling with the full body is one first step. If one combines that type of technology with the recent popularity of 3D technology, another realm of possibility comes into being. What if instead of playing a flat, 2 dimensional game, people are able to interact in 3 dimensions and be fully immersed in the environment of the game? As we get closer to the future, technology will enable people to more seamlessly interact with games, not to mention each other. Work and life will be more seamlessly integrated too. More and more home technologies will begin to “bleed over” into the work world and we may see things like full-body computer interaction to develop a website. We may see fully generated computer models that are so real, people can almost touch, taste, and smell the model.

Conclusion

Technology is constantly advancing. While time continues at a steady pace, technology grows much more rapidly. Such growth carries along with it great opportunity and great challenge. The need to find quality employees will always be a challenge. Along with that, the constant need for change and growth within a company’s IT infrastructure. When looking at the last century, 1910-2010, one see’s an abundance of what they might consider ground-breaking. While so much technology has been created and improved upon, the last decade has been one of the most defining in advancements. Cellular telephones have gained popularity. Including internet and text messaging, cellular phones are just one example of an ever expanding, ever changing technology. Add to that the decreasing physical size of electronics and the demand for increased ease of use, and the time where a cellular phone is the size of a small brick becomes almost a historical anecdote.

While advancement is happening at such a high rate, the demand for technical training and forward thinking remains at the forefront of the advancements. In the minds of many IT managers, people are, and always will be, the best advancement to their field. “Technology is constantly evolving and, as it becomes more integral to all processes at your company, your department will come under increasing pressure to provide reliable 24x7x365 functionality, enhanced capacity, and innovative, differentiating solutions” (Davidson, Cape, Voeller et. Al, 2009). The aforementioned solutions must be as varied as the people who discover them, but must be flexible enough to interact across multiple platforms. Technology is here to stay, how will the world respond to it?